The Math Doesn't Lie
Starlink works brilliantly in low-density areas—a vacation cabin in Joshua Tree, a farm in the Central Valley, anywhere with acres between neighbors. That's what it was designed for. But Avalon isn't low-density. It's a compact town of 4,400 residents welcoming over a million visitors annually, all concentrated in roughly one square mile.
According to peer-reviewed research from the X-Lab at UC Berkeley and analysis by the Institute for Local Self-Reliance (July 2025), Starlink's network begins degrading significantly when subscriber density exceeds approximately 6.7 users per square mile.[1] Beyond this threshold, speeds drop below the FCC's minimum broadband definition of 100/20 Mbps. The Fiber Broadband Association's 2021 study with Cartesian reached similar conclusions: LEO satellites are "limited to remote, hard to reach, low-density housing locations."[2]
If you've used Starlink at your home in Pasadena or Orange County and it worked great—that's because your neighborhood might have 5-10 Starlink dishes spread across several square miles, competing with fiber, cable, and 5G for customers. Avalon would have 1,200 locations crammed into ONE square mile, with no fiber or cable alternative.
The Canyon Problem: Obstructions Matter
To be clear: Starlink does work on Catalina—for some. Residents in the flats near the harbor with clear sky views report decent service. But we frequently hear from others who notice 2-5 brief outages per hour, enough to drop video calls and interrupt work. Some have given up entirely. The difference? Terrain.
Starlink requires a 100-degree cone of unobstructed sky from about 25° above the horizon in all directions.[3] Look at Avalon's geography: the town sits in a canyon running inland from the harbor, with steep hillsides rising on both sides.
For homes on the canyon slopes—which is where 80% of Avalon's residences, the school, hospital, and public safety offices are located—those hillsides block satellites at lower elevation angles. The Starlink app's obstruction checker would show significant red zones for many addresses. Even a few percent obstruction causes dropped connections during video calls, gaming lag, and unreliable service.
Fiber doesn't care about terrain. It runs underground or on poles, unaffected by hills, trees, or weather.
🛰️ See It For Yourself
Drag the sliders to see what Starlink speeds would actually be on Catalina Island
Speed Comparison: What You'd Actually Get
Upload matters for video calls, telemedicine, remote work, and cloud backups.
Starlink's "up to 400 Mbps" is advertised for ideal rural conditions—not Avalon's density.
Why Upload Matters Most
+Starlink's speeds are heavily asymmetric: decent download, terrible upload. At Avalon's density, upload collapses first. This breaks:
Telemedicine: HD video consultations require 3-5 Mbps upload minimum
Remote work: Video calls, cloud backups, and collaboration tools all depend on upload
Distance learning: Zoom classes and assignment uploads need reliable upstream bandwidth
Fiber delivers symmetric speeds—same upload as download—with 10-50× lower latency.
All Wireless Depends on Fiber
+Here's something most people don't realize: every Starlink ground station connects to the internet via high-speed fiber optic cables. SpaceX has partnered with Google to install ground stations at data centers precisely because fiber provides the reliable, high-capacity backhaul that satellites cannot.[4]
The same is true for 5G cell towers. Industry best practices require fiber backhaul—typically 10+ Gbps per tower—to deliver the speeds 5G promises.[5] Without adequate backhaul, even a brand-new 5G tower can only deliver a fraction of its potential. Catalina's existing cell service is limited precisely because it relies on aging microwave backhaul with nowhere near enough capacity.
Microwave backhaul can't solve this either. Point-to-point microwave links typically deliver 1-5 Gbps under ideal conditions, but degrade in rain and—counterintuitively—on "perfect" clear days due to thermal ducting that bends signals away from receivers. A single submarine fiber cable delivers 100× that capacity, rain or shine, with 30+ year reliability.
This is the fundamental problem: satellite and wireless aren't replacements for fiber—they depend on it. Catalina's connectivity bottleneck isn't the "last mile" to homes. It's the "middle mile" across the channel. Until that's solved with fiber, no amount of Starlink dishes or 5G towers will bring the island into the modern era.
Reliability: When Things Go Wrong
+July 24, 2025: A global Starlink outage took down service for 2.5+ hours. Traffic dropped to just 16% of normal.[7] The cause? An internal software failure—a single point of failure affecting millions of users across 140 countries.
December 17, 2025: Starlink satellite 35956 suffered catastrophic propulsion tank failure, broke apart, and began uncontrolled descent.[8] Satellites are complex machines operating in a harsh environment. They fail.
Solar storms: In February 2022, a minor geomagnetic storm destroyed 38 Starlink satellites ($50M+ loss).[8] In May 2024, the largest solar storm since 2003 put the entire constellation "under tremendous strain." We're currently in Solar Cycle 25, with increasing activity expected.
Submarine fiber cables are immune to space weather.
For Businesses & Hotels: It Gets Worse
+Think the math above is bad? Starlink's business plans add data caps and overage charges that make it even less viable for commercial use:
- Starlink Business: $250–$500/month for just 1–2 TB of "Priority" data
- Exceed your cap? Throttled to ~1 Mbps (unusable) or pay $0.50–$2.00/GB overage
- A 50-room hotel with guests streaming, video calling, and working remotely can easily burn through 5+ TB/month = $1,000+ in overage fees
- Peak season? Multiply that by tourists uploading vacation photos and videos
Meanwhile, AVX Fiber has no data caps, no throttling, and no overage charges—at any tier. The $40/month base plan includes unlimited symmetric 100 Mbps. The $240/month 10G plan includes unlimited symmetric 10 Gbps. Same price every month, no surprises.
AVX Fiber - Base
AVX Fiber - Gig
AVX Fiber - 10G
Starlink Residential
Starlink Lite
Starlink @ Avalon
The Digital Equity Question
California, the NTIA, and federal broadband policy have consistently held that steering underserved communities toward satellite or fixed wireless—while fiber-connected areas keep their infrastructure—is a form of digital redlining.
It's worth asking: do the voices advocating "just use Starlink" for Catalina have fiber at their primary residences? Avalon residents deserve the same infrastructure quality available in every mainland community—not a second-class solution because the middle mile is harder to build.
The Bottom Line
This isn't about being anti-Starlink. It's about understanding what tools work for what problems. Starlink is a genuine breakthrough for truly remote areas where laying cable is impossible or prohibitively expensive—a research station in Antarctica, a sailboat crossing the Pacific, a cabin in Joshua Tree.
But Avalon isn't a cabin in the desert. It's a tourism-based community—one million visitors per year generating the economic lifeblood for 4,400 residents. Behind every hotel, restaurant, and tour operator is a hospitality and service workforce that keeps the island running. They deserve reliable internet for telehealth appointments, their kids' homework, and staying connected with family on the mainland. The businesses they work for need connectivity that can handle peak summer crowds without collapsing.
Avalon has a Critical Access Hospital that depends on telemedicine, schools that need distance learning, and an entire economy that depends on visitors having a good enough experience to come back. None of that works with infrastructure designed for empty ranchland.
Fiber is the answer. It always has been.
Sources & References
- X-Lab, UC Berkeley & Institute for Local Self-Reliance. "Starlink Capacity Analysis: Evaluating Satellite Broadband for BEAD Funding." July 2025. Found that Starlink service degrades below 100/20 Mbps when density exceeds ~6.7 subscribers per square mile.
- Fiber Broadband Association & Cartesian. "LEO Satellite Broadband Analysis." 2021. Concluded LEO satellites are "a complementary alternative broadband technology, limited to remote, hard to reach, low-density housing locations."
- Starlink Support Documentation. States dishes require "100-degree cone" of unobstructed sky view with "25 degree elevation minimum" for reliable service.
- SpaceX FCC Filings; Google Cloud Partnership Announcements. Starlink ground stations connect to internet backbone via fiber optic cables at data center locations.
- GSMA Mobile Backhaul Overview; Corning 5G Networks Impact Study. 5G small cells require fiber backhaul delivering 10+ Gbps to achieve advertised performance.
- Ookla Speedtest Intelligence. Q2 2025 data shows only 17.4% of U.S. Starlink users achieved speeds meeting FCC broadband definition during peak hours.
- ThousandEyes Network Intelligence. July 24, 2025 Starlink global outage analysis: 2.5+ hours, traffic dropped to 16% of normal levels.
- SpaceX Announcements; Space-Track.org. February 2022: 38 satellites lost to geomagnetic storm. December 2025: Satellite 35956 propulsion failure and breakup.